Now define a ( \Pi ), which acts when a certain condition ( C(S_t, O_t, \theta) ) is met (e.g., high posterior entropy, predictive divergence, or a merger opportunity score).
| Failure Mode | Classical HMM | HMM Primorger | |--------------|---------------|----------------| | Novel regime emergence | Cannot create new hidden states | Actively merges existing states to form new primary regimes | | Structural adaptation | Requires offline retraining | Online, interventionist restructuring | | Predictive horizon collapse | Degrades after distribution shift | Re-organizes state space to maintain predictive power | | Causal opacity | Only infers | Infers and acts to simplify causal structure |
Now define a ( \Pi ), which acts when a certain condition ( C(S_t, O_t, \theta) ) is met (e.g., high posterior entropy, predictive divergence, or a merger opportunity score).
| Failure Mode | Classical HMM | HMM Primorger | |--------------|---------------|----------------| | Novel regime emergence | Cannot create new hidden states | Actively merges existing states to form new primary regimes | | Structural adaptation | Requires offline retraining | Online, interventionist restructuring | | Predictive horizon collapse | Degrades after distribution shift | Re-organizes state space to maintain predictive power | | Causal opacity | Only infers | Infers and acts to simplify causal structure |
